Steps to War Approach
= "The steps-to-war explanation is used to predict deductively whether certain transitions are at risk of war and how that war might come about." [1]
More information
* Article / Chapter: Whether and How Global Leadership Transitions Will Result in War: Some Long-Term Predictions from the Steps-to-War Explanation. John A. Vasquez. Chapter 7 of: Systemic Transitions. Past, Present, and Future. Ed. by William R. Thompson. Palgrave Macmillan, 2009
URL = https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057/9780230618381_7
"This analysis is an exercise in predicting the future likelihood of war breaking out during major transitions that might occur in the global political system. A useful theory of the causes of war should be able to predict the conditions under which war is highly likely or unlikely. It should also be able to identify the factors that put pairs of states or systems at risk for war. The two major transition theories that are the focus of this book—power transition and long cycle theory—both specify certain shifts in capability and in global leadership as conditions that increase the likelihood of war. The theory employed in this analysis does not see either of those conditions as the primary factors bringing about war. Instead, it sees wars as arising mainly out of certain kinds of issues and how they are handled. It examines how war grows out of the foreign policy behavior and interactions of states. This steps-to-war approach seeks to identify the steps states take that increase the probability of war and explain why they take them. Over the last decade there has been considerable research on the steps to war. This research in combination with the theory permit not only a general set of predictions that can be used to identify the broad conditions that increase the likelihood of war, but also permit predictions about the likelihood that specific dyads will fight. For instance, there has been wide speculation about the so-called coming transition between China and the United States."